Probability Puzzles Odds of a Flush in Poker

There are many different named hands in poker.  One that is easy to explain is called a flush.  This type of hand consists of every card having the same suit. Some of the techniques of combinatorics, or the study of counting, can be applied to calculate the probabilities of drawing certain types of hands in poker. The probability of being dealt a flush is relatively simple to find but is more complicated than calculating the probability of being dealt a royal flush. Assumptions For simplicity, we will assume that five cards are dealt from a standard 52 deck of cards without replacement. No cards are wild, and the player keeps all of the cards that are dealt to him or her. We will not be concerned with the order in which these cards are drawn, so each hand is a combination of five cards taken from a deck of 52 cards. There are a total number of C(52, 5) 2,598,960 possible distinct hands. This set of hands forms our sample space. Straight Flush Probability We start by finding the probability of a straight flush. A straight flush is a hand with all five cards in sequential order, all of which are of the same suit. In order to correctly calculate the probability of a straight flush, there are a few stipulations that we must make. We do not count a royal flush as a straight flush. So the highest ranking straight flush consists of a nine, ten, jack, queen and king of the same suit. Since an ace can count a low or high card, the lowest ranking straight flush is an ace, two, three, four and five of the same suit. Straights cannot loop through the ace, so queen, king, ace, two and three are not counted as a straight. These conditions mean that there are nine straight flushes of a given suit. Since there are four different suits, this makes 4 x 9 36 total straight flushes. Therefore the probability of a straight flush is 36/2,598,960 0.0014%. This is approximately equivalent to 1/72193. So in the long run, we would expect to see this hand one time out of every 72,193 hands. Flush Probability A flush consists of five cards which are all of the same suit. We must remember that there are four suits each with a total of 13 cards. Thus a flush is a combination of five cards from a total of 13 of the same suit. This is done in C(13, 5) 1287 ways. Since there are four different suits, there are a total of 4 x 1287 5148 flushes possible. Some of these flushes have already been counted as higher ranked hands. We must subtract the number of straight flushes and royal flushes from 5148 in order to obtain flushes that are not of a higher rank. There are 36 straight flushes and 4 royal flushes. We must make sure not to double count these hands. This means that there are 5148 – 40 5108 flushes that are not of a higher rank. We can now calculate the probability of a flush as 5108/2,598,960 0.1965%. This probability is approximately 1/509. So in the long run, one out of every 509 hands is a flush. Rankings and Probabilities We can see from the above that the ranking of each hand corresponds to its probability. The more likely that a hand is, the lower it is in ranking. The more improbable that a hand is, the higher its ranking.

In Praise of Science and Technology by Carl Sagan

In the middle of the nineteenth century, the largely self-educated British physicist Michael Faraday was visited by his monarch, Queen Victoria. Among Faradays many celebrated discoveries, some of obvious and immediate practical benefit, were more arcane findings in electricity and magnetism, then little more than laboratory curiosities. In the traditional dialogue between heads of state and heads of laboratories, the Queen asked Faraday of what use such studies were, to which he is said to have replied, Madam, of what use is a baby? Faraday had an idea that there might someday be something practical in electricity and magnetism. In the same period the Scottish physicist James Clerk Maxwell set down four mathematical equations, based†¦show more content†¦The establishment of such research and environmental assessment organizations will require substantial political courage if they are to be effective at all. Technological societies have a tightly knit industrial ecology, an interwoven network of economic assumptions. It is very difficult to challenge one thread in the network without causing tremors in all. Any judgment that a technological development will have adverse human consequences implies a loss of profit for someone. The DuPont Company, the principal manufacturers of halocarbon propellants, for example, took the curious position in public debates that all conclusions about halocarbons destroying the ozonosphere were theoretical. They seemed to be implying that they would be prepared to stop halocarbon manufacture only after the conclusions were tested experimentally-that is, when the ozonosp here was destroyed. There are some problems where inferential evidence is all that we will have; where once the catastrophe arrives it is too late to deal with it. Similarly, the Department of Energy can be effective only if it can maintain a distance from vested commercial interests, if it is free to pursue new options even if such options imply loss of profits for selected industries. The same is clearly true in pharmaceutical research, in the pursuit of alternatives to theShow MoreRelatedEssay on Is Technology Constructive or Destructive?1896 Words   |  8 PagesWhere would this world be without technology? Debates have been made for many decades whether or not social networking and technology is producing a more etiquette economy or a more destructive one. Social Networking and technology is transforming this society in positive ways. Think about the Wright brothers. They had no technology whatsoever to back them up; they made creations with the bare resources that the earth gave them. Wilbur and Orville did not have computers to aid them in recordingRead MoreStephen P. Robbins Timothy A. Judge (2011) Organizational Behaviour 15th Edition New Jersey: Prentice Hall393164 Words   |  1573 PagesBehavior 22 Coming Attractions: Developing an OB Model 23 An Overview 23 †¢ Inputs 24 †¢ Processes 25 †¢ Outcomes 25 Summary and Implications for Managers 30 S A L Self-Assessment Library How Much Do I Know About Organizational Behavior? 4 Myth or Science? â€Å"Most Acts of Workplace Bullying Are Men Attacking Women† 12 An Ethical Choice Can You Learn from Failure? 24 glOBalization! Does National Culture Affect Organizational Practices? 30 Point/Counterpoint Lost in Translation? 31 Questions for ReviewRead MoreProject Mgmt296381 Words   |  1186 PagesContinuous improvement 5.1 Requirements vs. actual [5.3] Chapter 17 Agile PM 6.1.2.2 Rolling wave This page intentionally left blank Project Management The Managerial Process The McGraw-Hill/Irwin Series Operations and Decision Sciences OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Beckman and Rosenfield, Operations, Strategy: Competing in the 21st Century, First Edition Benton, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, Second Edition Bowersox, Closs, and Cooper, Supply Chain Logistics Management, Third

Organisational Behaviour Employee Engagement And Performance

Question: Discuss about the Organisational Behaviour Employee Engagement And Performance. Answer: Introduction The purpose of this study is to understand and analyse the association among various organisational terms such as employee performance, employee engagement and organisational commitment. All these three terms are interlinked as well as different from each other. There is a significant impact of one term on another (Robertson-Smith and Markwick, 2009). The organisational commitment and employee engagement put a direct impact upon the performance of the employees. Therefore, the organisational managers are required to have their equal attention of all these three aspects for achieving improved organisational productivity and development (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). The essay will provide critical comparison of all these elements as well as also highlights the correlation among these aspects. There will be critivcal analyse the impact of the organisational commitment and employee engagement on the performance of an individual in the organisation. The study will also offer the positiv e and negative implications of the commitment towards the organisation and employee engagement on the overall performance of the employees and the organisation. Organisational commitment, employee engagement and employee performance Employee-organizational commitment and the employee engagement are vital and significant requirements of an organisation as in the globalized business economy and trades, it is essential to get recover from the global recession. In an organisation, the organisational and employee commitment and engagement at work have always been the most concerned areas for the organisational managers, executive and the HR department (Curtis, Upchurch and Severt, 2009). Because of the finding that employee engagement ahs several positive association among various other aspects of the organisation such as organisational profit, organisational success, and retention rate of the employees, productivity, growth and customers satisfactions. Thus, the mangers take much interest in the subject of employee engagement and organisational commitments (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). Employee engagement is an approach at the organisational workplace which results in development of appropriate conditions for all the organisational employees so that they can put their utmost efforts for the accomplishment of the organisational goals which directly results in organisational growth and success. Employee engagement can also be explained as an emotional attachment which the organisational employees sense for their organisation, job role, colleagues and the organisational productivity and growth (Kular, et al., 2008). From the viewpoint of the employers, the employee engagement is regarded as taking use of several initiatives and measures for improving and enhancing the emotional attachment of the workforce with the overall organisational and business success. In several organisations, the employee engagement is regarded as one of the primary tool for achieving increased competitive advantages. The approach of employee engagement can also be understood as the extent to which the employee is absorbed and focused in her or his job role and performance (Mehta and Mehta, 2013). There are two different kinds of employee engagement i.e. organisational engagement and job engagement. The organisational engagement depicts the degree to which an individual is mentally pesent as an organisational member and the employee engagement demonstrates the amount to which an individaul is actually attentive in ones respective job role performance (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). The organisational commitment can be explained as the psychological affection of an employee with the organisation. The primary purpose for focusing on the aspect of organisational commitment is to improve the manner in which the employees sense about their job, work role and the organisation. There are several positive as well as negative outcomes of organisational commitment defending boon the density that it is high or low (Simpson, 2009). There are several factors which are directly or indirectly dependent upon the organisational commitment such as the job performance, organizational citizenship behaviour, employee turnover, organisational productivity, etc. If there is organisational commitment from the employees side then there is a responsible behaviour of the employees towards the job related responsibilities and the organisational goals and values (Attridge, 2009). There are majorly three kinds of organisational commitment that includes normative organisational commitment, c ontinuance organisational commitment and affective organisational commitment. Firstly, the affective commitment can be explained as emotive affection and participation of an individual in an organisation. Secondly, the continuance commitment is that the employees are attentive of the costs which are linked with their turnover from the organisation. And third, the normative commitment can be explained as that the employee perceives a kind of responsibility or obligation to stay in an organisation. The normative commitment is a sense that employees feel that they ought to do so and as a result they continue their assurance with the establishment (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). There is a strong link between the employee engagement and organisational commitment. It has been found and analysed by several researchers that with the rise in the employee engagement, there also takes place growth in the level of organisational commitment and as a result it enhances the job satisfaction among the workforce (Guest, 2014). The increased job satisfaction is one of the most potential aspects for the organisations as it helps in developing innovative ideas, decreasing absenteeism and turnover rates of the employees, improving sreciurity and health and also upsurge the motivation level of the employees (Brunetto, et al., 2012). In the business organisations, it has been analysed and evaluated that if the employees are involved in the various organisational decision making processes as well as the discussion, then it increased their level of motivation which improves employee engagement. The higher employee involvement and employee engagement is one of the primary strate gies or approaches of the business organisations for achieving high competitive e benefits (Albrecht, et al., 2015). Due to the impact of globalisation, it is essentially required for the companies to pay increasing focus upon the development of the employees and their engagement with the organisation. This is because that if the employees will not be engaged with the organisation, the level of motivation will be decrease which will result in ineffective and downturn performance outcomes (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). A highly engaged employee is a noteworthy asset for an organisation as the level of organisational commitment of the engaged employees are usually very high. The highly committed employees are not just committed or pay focus on their individual job roles rather they have a commitment with the attainment of the organisational goals along with the overall success of the organisation (Bakker and Schaufeli, 2008). The employee performance is another vital aspect which is associated with the employee engagement and organisational commitment. The efficiency or in efficiency of the performance of an individuals in an organisation is completely depended upon several factors. The two primary factors which impact the most are organisational commitment and employees engagement. If an employee is fully engagement with organisation and have the integration of personal goals with the organisational goals then it positively impact the employees performance (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). Some authors have argued that only the monetary incentives are the source of organisational commitment and employee engagement. But in present scenario, this statement can be argued by taking insights from various researchers and discussions. There are numerous source and factors which have their significant contribution in enhancing the employee engagement and organisational commitment level of the employees (Geldenhuys, Laba and Venter, 2014). These factors comprises of job enlargement, job enrichment, involvement of the employees in the decision making processes, improved security, formal recognition, providing authoritative position in the organisation, development of the informal association among the colleagues, etc. (Macey and Schneider, 2008). All these factors also play a vital role in enhancing the employee engagement which in turn develops the commitment of the employees towards the organisation and the attainment of its goals. And if an employee work with increase commitm ent then there are almost double the chances of success and organisational growth as the human resource are the actual and potential asset of the organisation which helps them grow and attain long-term sustainability and development (Albdour and Altarawneh, 2014). Conclusion Organisational success and development is not possible to be attained without a highly engaged and committed workforce. Due to improved globalisation as well as industrialisation, the way of managing the workforces has changes across the globe. The organisational mangers pay key attention on the development and engagement of the employees so that there can be attained high level of organisational commitment and improved organisational productivity. From this essay, it can be concluded that there is a link between the organisational commitment of the employees and the employee engagement which directly impacts the performances of the employees which can be in a positive or a negative manner. The higher the level of employee engagement is, the greater is the organisational commitment and the improved outcomes are shown in the performances of the employees. Therefore, it is essential for the business organisations to have initiatives for increasing the involvement of the employees and a ttaining competitive advantages from it. This will help the organisation in declining the attrition rate as well as increasing the growth rate of the organisation. References Albdour, A. A., Altarawneh, I. I. (2014). Employee engagement and organizational commitment: Evidence from Jordan.International Journal of Business,19(2), 192. Albrecht, S. L., Bakker, A. B., Gruman, J. A., Macey, W. H., Saks, A. M. (2015). Employee engagement, human resource management practices and competitive advantage: An integrated approach.Journal of Organizational Effectiveness: People and Performance,2(1), 7-35. Attridge, M. (2009). Measuring and managing employee work engagement: A review of the research and business literature.Journal of Workplace Behavioral Health,24(4), 383-398. Bakker, A. B., Schaufeli, W. B. (2008). Positive organizational behavior: Engaged employees in flourishing organizations.Journal of Organizational Behavior,29(2), 147-154. Brunetto, Y., Teo, S. T., Shacklock, K., Farr?Wharton, R. (2012). Emotional intelligence, job satisfaction, well?being and engagement: explaining organisational commitment and turnover intentions in policing.Human Resource Management Journal,22(4), 428-441. Curtis, C. R., Upchurch, R. S., Severt, D. E. (2009). Employee motivation and organizational commitment: a comparison of tipped and nontipped restaurant employees.International Journal of Hospitality Tourism Administration,10(3), 253-269. Geldenhuys, M., Laba, K., Venter, C. M. (2014). Meaningful work, work engagement and organisational commitment.SA Journal of Industrial Psychology,40(1), 01-10. Guest, D. (2014). Employee engagement: a sceptical analysis.Journal of Organizational Effectiveness: People and Performance,1(2), 141-156. Kular, S., Gatenby, M., Rees, C., Soane, E., Truss, K. (2008). Employee engagement: a literature review. Macey, W. H., Schneider, B. (2008). The meaning of employee engagement.Industrial and organizational Psychology,1(1), 3-30. Mehta, D., Mehta, N. K. (2013). Employee engagement: A literature review.Economia. Seria Management,16(2), 208-15. Robertson-Smith, G., Markwick, C. (2009).Employee engagement: A review of current thinking. Brighton: Institute for Employment Studies. Simpson, M. R. (2009). Engagement at work: A review of the literature.International journal of nursing studies,46(7), 1012-1024.

Describe and examine the major components of market orientation Essay Example

Describe and examine the major components of market orientation Essay Describe and examine the major components of market orientation in relation to the marketing mix, target marketing, relationship marketing and the marketing plan. In doing so, explain and evaluate how the passive concept of the marketing mix adopts a market orientation focus.The marketing mix, target marketing, relationship marketing and the marketing plan are the key constituent parts of marketing as a general concept. Any successful company must be market orientated, but not all businesses subscribe as much as they should to this requirement. There are three main components of market orientation customer orientation, competitor orientation and inter-functional co-ordination. We need to examine each component of marketing orientation and look at how effective the concept of market orientation is in terms of contributing to the success of a business.Market orientation has been characterised as that part of an organisation that requires customer satisfaction to be paramount within th e operations of a business (Liu et al, 2002). This, in turn, produces superior value for customers and outstanding performance for the firm (Day, 1994; Narver and Slater, 1990). A company must also remember that a customers expectations evolve over time, so there is an ever-present need for a company to deliver products of the highest quality and respond to changes in the marketplace (Jaworski et al, 1993).Every market orientated company wants to attract and retain customers and it can only do this by satisfying their wants and needs. In a company that is customer orientated, there are five main marketing tasks. These are:- identifying target markets- conducting market research- developing products- setting the right marketing mix- monitoring the marketIn order to ensure that this customer orientation is successful, initially management has to identify the customers to whom it wants to appeal. Managements choice of target markets will, in part, be governed by the socio-economic prof ile of its potential customers and its own ability to meet their needs. The company must also carry out market research to collect information on existing trends and the needs of customers. The market research will look at what competitors offer and how their innovations can be improved and in turn capitalised upon. Businesses need to develop products and services that meet the needs of its target consumers. Then, having identified potential target markets and developed relevant products, management must utilise the marketing mix. They must set the correct price, promote it in an appropriate way by using relevant marketing mediums, ensure that the placement of the product is suitable for its target customers and ensure the product is distributed widely.The company must then monitor the market by building a stable relationship with their customers. They need feedback from customers as to what they like about a particular product or service and what they dislike. By using this informa tion, they can tailor and tweak future products to ensure that they are better and more relevant.When looking at a customer orientated business from an economics and value-based perspective, consumers do not search for products with maximum quality or minimum price but seek products which are optimal to them on the quality-price-ratio (Rust and Oliver, 1994). When deciding on a product, customers consider both quality and non-quality dimensions such as price and speed of delivery. In the modern technological world, consumers have much more information available to them and the ability to ensure that their decision-making process is made as well-informed as possible. For example, websites such as Kelkoo (www.kelkoo.co.uk) and Pricerunner (www.pricerunner.co.uk) allow consumers to compare prices and delivery times on a range of products, as well as read reviews from other consumers to evaluate whether the item is suitable.The marketing mix is one of the most well known phrases in mark eting and incorporates the four Ps product, place, price and promotion. These concepts were first highlighted by McCarthy in 1960. Each of these components is vitally important to a company that is market orientated. In terms of ensuring that a company is customer orientated, it is likely that it will need to balance of all four Ps in order to attract customers to the product and entice them away from the companys competitors. However, the mix can vary as a company can alter how much importance it places on each component depending on the requirements of, or its own perceptions of, its prospective market.Above: The Marketing MixFor example, if a company has a new product where price may initially be less important compared to securing knowledge of its existence amongst the general public, the company will place more emphasis on the promotion element of the mix.A target market for a particular product is usually defined by its age, gender and socio-economic grouping. For example, ch ildrens toys are marketed to children and their parents but not to pensioners, though one should not forget that even they are potential grandparents. Similarly, a Barbie doll would not be marketed towards young boys.Therefore, in terms of customer orientation and target marketing, a business must ensure that it targets a suitable demographic background. There is no point in investing money in targeting customers who are not interested in the product. This means that the business will need to conduct market research in order to determine who their product appeals to and therefore where they should invest their marketing budget.Relationship marketing places emphasis on longer term links with customers rather than on individual transactions. The origins of modern relationship marketing date back to 1980 when Schneider (1980) noted: What is surprising is that researchers and businessmen have concentrated far more on how to attract customers to products and services than on how to retai n customers. Later, Fornell and Wernerfet (1987) coined the term defensive marketing to examine ways of increasing customer loyalty and reducing customer turnover. This is part of the competitor orientation component of market orientation. When using defensive marketing, a company focuses on reducing or managing the dissatisfaction of its customers, whereas offensive marketing focuses on tempting dissatisfied customers away from a competitor to generate new customers. This is of vital importance to a competitor orientated business if it is to assume a leading position in the market. As relationship marketing aims to build a rapport with customers through one good experience, it is likely that customers will assume that the company deals with them appropriately at all times so they are more likely to purchase from the company in future.Effective inter-functional co-ordination ensures that all departments of a business work in conjunction with each other to provide the best possible s ervice and price to consumers. Each part of the business needs to support the end marketing objectives of the business as a whole. For instance, the technical specifications of a product are just as important as the promotional aspects or the pricing strategy. They all have to work in tandem.Inter-functional coordination can be used effectively in the marketing mix to ensure that each department is properly represented. For example, the marketing department will need to consult with other departments in order to find out the relevant product specifications, the price that the item should be sold for and who the item is targeted to in order to work out the best way to promote the item. It means that every department must be communicating effectively with one another in order to ensure that the final customer experience is seamless.It must be noted, however, that there are alternatives to market orientation that dont encompass Narver and Slaters three components of customer orientatio n, competitor orientation and inter-functional co-ordination described above. Kohli and Jaworskis (1990) behavioural approach defined market orientation in terms of organisational behaviours such as the generation of information, dissemination of information and responsiveness to information.There are alternatives to a pure market orientation business philosophy such as sales orientation, production orientation and product orientation. Sales orientation focuses on selling the most number of units possible. Its premise is to make full use of selling, pricing, promotion and distribution skills just like a marketing orientated business, but unlike the latter, it pays less direct attention to the needs of customers and does not necessarily give priority to creating suitable products.A production orientated business is mainly concerned with making as many units as possible. In such a business, the needs of customers are secondary compared with the objective of increasing output. On the o ther hand, a product orientated business is obsessed with being at the forefront of its market in terms of believing that their product is the best in the market. They may, however, not be up-to-speed with the latest developments and consumer preferences and therefore may find that their competitors start to overtake them.However, none of these three alternatives is likely to prove successful in anything but the short term. Companies have choices as to how they orientate their business and ensure they target the right market. By using the marketing mix thoroughly and effectively as a total concept, companies can benefit and use the theory to their advantage. They must, however, ensure that the mix is correct: if they do not give any single component sufficient attention, the mix will fail to produce the right results.